Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
01/16/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Aloha is Hawaiian for either hello, or goodbye.
The PGA Tour should bid a permanent goodbye aloha to opening the season in Hawaii.
The tour heads to the mainland of the United States this week after a fortnight in the 50th state. The Hyundai Tournament of Champions and Sony Open in Hawaii are things of the past; hopefully, the permanent past.
Hawaii seems lovely. Never been myself, but "The Descendants" sure looked nice in the background. This is nothing against Hawaii itself. I've never been on a honeymoon, and I'm not "Forgetting Sarah Marshall," but the time for professional golf in the Aloha State has passed.
The season has opened in Hawaii since 1999 and with each passing year, the tour's top stars have skipped it more frequently than an 8:30 Friday morning class.
The tournament is reserved for the previous year's winners. It's an exclusive event and the intention is to reward golfers with a week in paradise and an enormous paycheck. (Jhonattan Vegas finished dead-last this year and pocketed $64,000.)
This year, Phil Mickelson, Masters champion Charl Schwartzel, world No. 1 Luke Donald, U.S. Open winner Rory McIlroy, Open champion Darren Clarke, Martin Kaymer, Adam Scott and Dustin Johnson all passed.
The biggest star in the field was Steve Stricker. Granted, he won the tournament, but that's not exactly what you should be looking for from the "Tournament of Champions."
Tiger Woods, back when he won official PGA Tour events, made it acceptable to withdraw before the tournament. He hasn't played in Hawaii since the 2005 season-opener.
Hawaii is beautiful, but who wants to travel that far? Players could make a two-week stay of it in Hawaii and play the Sony, but most of them don't want to make such a commitment that early in the season.
Do I think more stars would play if they didn't have to take a five-hour flight from California? Yes, that is my contention.
Few golfers speak out publicly why they don't want to play in this event, and there's zero evidence to suggest that a change to Los Angeles or even Las Vegas would enhance the star power.
The only thing backing up this theory is the years-long absence of golf's biggest names. We'll never know until the plug is pulled on the Hawaii experiment.
Aside from the fact the Hawaii swing is getting dimmer, there are other logistic problems.
The five-hour time difference on the east coast puts the championships squarely in prime-time. It's on against the NFL playoffs. You don't need to waste your time checking the ratings. Brady v. Tebow did better than Maggert v. Every.
Why try and compete against that? If the tour played in the western time zone, the rounds could still be over before 8:00 p.m. (et) and thus not have to fight for sports viewers.
Is this an east-coast bias? You bet it is, but remember, this is the media capital of the world. We don't owe Hawaii a blessed thing, other than a hearty thank you for Don Ho and embarrassing shirts for middle-aged men.
The LPGA Tour is headed to Hawaii in April with the LPGA LOTTE Championship. It's been wildly heralded as a huge move for the tour, although Dottie Pepper in last week's "Sports Illustrated" illustrated some unmentioned problems with this event.
"Three months before the event there's still no plan to get it on TV," wrote Pepper. "The equipment that brings us golf and football from Hawaii in January and February is back on the mainland by April. Those trucks may have to float west after the Kraft Nabisco, which will cost a lot but be well worth it. Last year Golf Channel aired more hours of live coverage and showed features about many of the players, and the LPGA's ratings grew 30 percent. Will it last?"
Events in Hawaii aren't bringing much more to the pig roast than some gnarly surfing opportunities for those involved. What was once a great perk has become a chore and it's not working.
Send everybody to Vegas or L.A. and it will work out better for all involved.
RANDOM THOUGHTS
- PGA Tour Commissioner Tim Finchem got a four-year extension and will be on the job through 2016. He gets a lot of credit for keeping the tour thriving through choppy economic times. Finchem will be close to 70 when that extension runs out. There is no clear successor for the gig, so the tour has four years to find one.
- I'm available for aforementioned position.
- If Hawaiian events are outdated, so were five-round tournaments, so good news this week's Humana Challenge was trimmed to four. Pres. Clinton is heavily involved, thus the appearance of Greg Norman, a good buddy of the former President.
- According to ESPN, a poorly-kept secret may be reality. ESPN is reporting that Tiger Woods will team with Tony Romo at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Doesn't make pro-ams any more interesting.
- Movie moment - Normally I try to catch Oscar nominated films before the awards and nominations are around the corner. Which would I like to see less - a French silent film, or a movie about a horse? In its defense, it is a "War Horse."
<< Rose sidelined because of toe injury
Memphis, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chicago Bulls guard Derrick Rose will sit out
Monday's game against Memphis because of a lingering toe problem.
Rose was initially hurt during a January 10 game against Minnesota and missed
the following night'
<< Zumaya headed to Minnesota
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Twins and reliever Joel
Zumaya have reportedly agreed to a one-year contract.
According to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, the deal will pay the oft-injured
right-hander $800,000 with
<< Ragan signs with Front Row Motorsports
Statesville, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - David Ragan will drive the No.34 Ford for
Front Row Motorsports during the 2012 Sprint Cup Series season, the team
announced on Monday.
Ragan drove the No.6 car for Roush Fenway Racing in Sprint C
<< Tigers avoid arbitration with Porcello, Coke
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers have avoided arbitration
with Rick Porcello and Phil Coke, agreeing to one-year contracts with both
pitchers on Monday.
Porcello made 31 starts for the Tigers last season, going 1
Syracuse remains top team in men's hoops poll >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Syracuse is again the top team in the latest
Associated Press men's college basketball poll.
The Orange, after double-digit wins over Villanova and Providence last week,
again earned 60 first-place vote
Anderson, Stalberg, Malkin named NHL's 'Three Stars' >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ottawa Senators goalie Craig Anderson,
Chicago Blackhawks left winger Viktor Stalberg, and Pittsburgh Penguins center
Evgeni Malkin have been named the NHL's 'Three Stars' for the week ending
January
Stars' Ribeiro lands on IR >>
Frisco, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Dallas Stars placed center Mike Ribeiro on
injured reserve Monday.
The move is retroactive to January 7, when he suffered a lower-body injury
against the Edmonton Oilers.
In 40 games this season, Ri
Wagner makes huge leap in world rankings >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Johnson Wagner's victory Sunday at the
Sony Open in Hawaii eared him a huge leap in this week's world rankings.
Wagner rocketed up 106 spots to No. 92 this week after his two-stroke victory.
Luke Do
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting